See beginning of this article under name “Where to look for trends at Forex , or the faultless gaining of profit by a trader. (Part I)”
You try to set up hypotheses of your own. If the market confirms them, you can use such hypotheses as the foundation of your practical work – otherwise, you are not obliged to apply the incorrect theory.
General conclusion
The traditional approach is of no use to traders. It is suitable only for analysts, who try to “scientifically” explain the reasons of traders’ losses at Forex post factum .
I hope that now it is evident why Dow’s classification of trends is still acknowledged and approved almost by all analysts at Forex . In practice, they do not want to change anything in this classification. In addition, each of such analysts has his own vision of these sorts of trends, which introduces an additional confusion (mishmash).
Trend Classification according MASTERFOREX-V
Let us begin with a platitude. The theory is viable only if it depicts the reality correctly, helps to understand it better and predicts its further development.
Often practice leaves a theory behind. In this case, turning into dogma, the theory hampers the development of practice. As the result of this in the case of Forex , traders will inevitably make mistakes – consequently, they will lose real money.
At Masterforex-V, the trend classification is the following:
1. the intra-session trend;
2. the weekly trend;
3. the trend that lasts several weeks/months
That is, I try to classify trend from the viewpoint of a working trader. I use this very classification by myself, and it does help me in the practical work at Forex . The correlation between the three kinds of trends is clear. One can trace it out at the very beginning of the intra-session movement of ally currency pairs – in contrast to the majority of systems developed by “analysts”, where this correlation becomes understandable only post factum .
For instance, two kinds of trends (the intra-session and the weekly ones) coincide at the beginning of the trading session. In this case, it is a wave of the general trend. This wave can be detected even by a beginner at Forex – to say nothing about more experienced traders. If the trends do not coincide, there occurs retracement (correction) of one kind of trends with respect to the others.
A trader can see the area of this movement, clearly distinguishing tactic from strategy of “his” currency pair movement. This is the only way to detect a trend of the duration of several weeks/months. Respectively, from the very beginning the trader can see towards what direction it will be worthwhile to open a deal – but not post factum when the movement is already dieing out. For instance, in for GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs (see below) the segments of this trend are clearly observable.
a). April 18 – July 20, 2005;
b). July 20 – September 5, 2005;
c). September 5 – November 28, 2005;
d). November 28, 2005
The corresponding charts clearly indicate what a trader had had to do on any of those days. At the same time, one is interested in gaining profit but not just in acquiring materials for the analysis. The work with the intra-session trend permits us to understand the situation at Forex at a given moment (the intra-session trend, the retracement , reversal or the weekly/monthly trend continuance). Naturally, it serves for gaining profit.
The trend of the 1st type is an integral part of a longer trend, its continuance or retracement.
Thus, the principal difference of this classification from other ones consists in the following. The 1st and 2nd positions are introduced as new. The long-term trend lasts several weeks/months. The next (4th) position can be examined as well. However, being a trader but not an investor, I’m not interested in taking it into account in my practical work at Forex .
The intra-session trend at Forex : proofs of its existence and practical application .
The proof #1 . At present the trend classification is of a somewhat dogmatic character. Therefore, let us dwell on practical problems – i.e., the methods of up-to-date traders’ work and time intervals during which deals are being kept open. Understanding of these practical aspects will facilitate us the understanding the theoretical problem of the trend classification.
The question is formulated in the following way: “On average, for how long do you keep the position open at Forex ?
a). the intra-session trading during 1 day;
b). several days (up to a weeks);
c). from a week till a month;
d). from a month and longer.
As it turned out, the overwhelming majority of traders work exactly during the intra-day trading session (more than 80%). Just a few traders keep their orders open from a week till a month. The results could shock all those theorists who still consider the intra-day trading to be just “a trading noise”.
The proof #2 . Let us compare the charts of GBP/USD and EUR/USD movement with the currency pair spread extent.
Chart 11.1. GBP/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 11. 2. EUR/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Working with these currency pairs, I always suppose that per session the stock reserves (the stability factors) of GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs make ~70 and ≥40 points, respectively.
There arises the question: why should not a trader work within the intra-day trading session? Really, the spread makes 2-4 points, while the currency pair stock reserve (the stability factor) more than 15 times exceeds the spread?
I’m wondering do such up-to-date authors-analysts at least sometimes open the point-of-sale terminal when they talk about “the market noise”. Why do they vigorously talk traders out of working within the intra-day trading session? – Naturally, here the up-to-date authors are implied but not those who lived decades ago.
The proof #3. Let us examine intra-session tends from the viewpoint of the criteria of the trend itself.
a). According to Ch. Dow, the trend is defined as the price directed movement when each of the next maximums is higher/lower than the previous one. Analogously, each of the next minimums is higher/lower than the previous one. From this very viewpoint, let us examine the charts M15 of GBP/USD movement in the Asian, European and American trading sessions on December 12, 2005. We can clearly see that each of upward fractals is higher than the previous one. Respectively, each of downward fractals is lower than the previous one. Thus, there are precise criteria of the trend type in each of trading sessions.
Chart 11.3. GBP/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 11.4. GBP/USD movement . (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 11.5.GBP/USD movement
b). When the trend is over, there starts the natural retracement (correction) towards the direction opposite to the trend movement. The correction is equal to various Fibonacci levels. It is clearly depicted in the given intra-session trend charts.
The proof #4. If during the intra-day trading session the currency pair movement is heavy, then in the end of this trend the natural retracement occurs. It makes at least 23-38% in accordance with Fibonacci levels. That is, the retracement is inevitable and it substantially exceeds the spread in magnitude. Consequently, why should a trader keep on holding the position open further?
Is it because some analysts somewhere and some time denied the intra-session trend existence? Evidently, only unqualified theorists, talking about the “market noise”, can recommend issuing from charts D4 to traders in their work.
The proof #5 . You should carefully study where traders of one of the first-rate informational agencies (Dow-Jones agency) place their orders for the buy and sell of currencies.
EURO: orders for buying are at 1.1950/60 (options), 1.1935 and 1.1890; orders for selling are at 1.2000.
YEN: orders for buying are at 116.30/40; orders for selling are at 116.75 (options) and 117.00 (options).
STERLING : orders for buying are at 1.7660; orders for selling are at 1.7700.
The difference in 40-60 points testifies that these orders are intended for the intra-day trading session.
The proof #6 . Let us examine the levels of support and resistance, edited by world-leading banks market-makers. One can see the analogous recommendations – i.e., to work within the trading session (or a day).
As one can see, both Deutsche Bank and Saxo Bank place their orders within the intra-day trading.
There arises the logical question. In the cases of the breakout of the levels of resistance or support, why should not a trader open his order and enter the market? The only reason is that some theorists, pretending to be “classics”, refer to this movement as to the “market noise”. Probably, such “analysts” must come down to earth and revise their views on Forex after examining the work of real traders.
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16mb
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